JPMorgan Turns Bullish: Bank Predicts Institution-Led Crypto Recovery

The crypto market is going through turbulent times. Bitcoin has dropped below $70,000, erasing a portion of the gains accumulated in recent months. Yet amid this correction, an unexpected voice is making itself heard with a decidedly optimistic message: JPMorgan, America’s largest bank.

In a report published on February 11, 2026, Wall Street analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou declared themselves “positive on crypto markets for 2026.” Their conviction? Institutional flows will take over from retail investors and push the market to new highs. An analysis that stands in stark contrast to the prevailing pessimism and deserves closer examination.

Bitcoin Below Production Cost: A Historic Signal

One of the key arguments in JPMorgan’s report centers on a metric often overlooked by the general public: Bitcoin’s production cost. This measure represents the minimum price at which miners can operate profitably, accounting for electricity, hardware, and operational expenses.

According to the bank’s estimates, this cost currently stands at around $77,000. At the time of the report’s publication, Bitcoin was trading around $66,000—14% below this critical threshold.

Why Is This Level So Important?

Historically, production cost has acted as a “soft floor” for Bitcoin’s price. When BTC drops below this level, several mechanisms kick in:

• The least efficient miners cease operations, reducing selling pressure
• Mining difficulty adjusts downward, lowering overall production costs
• Remaining miners become more profitable, stabilizing the network

This self-correcting mechanism explains why periods when Bitcoin trades below production cost are typically short-lived. For JPMorgan, the current situation represents a buying opportunity rather than a panic signal.

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Institutions at the Heart of the Predicted Recovery

JPMorgan’s shift in tone doesn’t come out of nowhere. The bank observes a structural phenomenon: the rise of institutional investors in the crypto market.

A Market That’s Professionalizing

Unlike previous cycles dominated by retail investors and speculation, the current market sees growing participation from institutional players:

• Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated billions of dollars in assets under management
• Family offices and hedge funds are increasing their crypto allocations
• Corporate treasuries are beginning to consider Bitcoin as a store of value

This institutionalization has a stabilizing effect on the market. Institutions have longer investment horizons, more rigorous decision-making processes, and are less likely to panic during corrections.

JPMorgan Itself Undergoing Transformation

It’s telling that this analysis comes from JPMorgan, a bank whose CEO Jamie Dimon has long called Bitcoin a “fraud.” The bank has gradually shifted its position:

• December 2025: JPMorgan explores crypto trading for institutional clients
• October 2025: The bank authorizes Bitcoin as collateral
• February 2026: Analysts officially declare being “positive” on the market

This reversal illustrates a broader shift in traditional finance. Major banks can no longer ignore an asset class their clients are demanding.

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Bitcoin vs Gold: The Balance of Power Shifts

Another argument put forward by JPMorgan merits attention: Bitcoin’s relative positioning against gold.

Gold Has Outperformed, But at What Cost?

Since October 2025, gold has significantly outperformed Bitcoin. The yellow metal has benefited from its safe-haven status amid geopolitical tensions. But this outperformance has come with a notable increase in its volatility.

Paradoxically, Bitcoin—often criticized for its volatility—now displays relatively more stable volatility compared to gold. For JPMorgan, this reversal makes BTC “increasingly attractive compared to gold over the long term.”

$266,000 Target Maintained

In a previous report, JPMorgan mentioned a target of $266,000 for Bitcoin in the long term, based on convergence with gold’s market cap as a store of value. Despite the current correction, the bank maintains this bullish outlook.

Analysts estimate that if Bitcoin progressively captures a share of the gold market (estimated at over $12 trillion), valuations well above current levels are justifiable.

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U.S. Regulation as a Catalyst

The final pillar of JPMorgan’s optimism concerns regulatory developments in the United States.

The Clarity Act and Other Legislative Progress

Analysts anticipate passage of new crypto-friendly legislation, notably the Clarity Act. This law would aim to clarify the legal status of digital assets and establish a coherent regulatory framework.

For institutional investors, regulatory clarity is a prerequisite. Many funds remain on the sidelines not from lack of interest, but from legal uncertainty. A clear framework could unlock tens of billions of dollars in waiting capital.

The SEC Effect and Tone Shift

Under the new administration, the SEC has adopted a more conciliatory stance toward the crypto sector. Approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, followed by ETFs on other cryptocurrencies, demonstrates this change in approach.

JPMorgan expects this trend to accelerate in 2026, potentially with new approvals (Solana ETF, XRP ETF) and a reduction in lawsuits against industry players.

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What Does This Analysis Mean for Investors?

JPMorgan’s report offers several lessons for investors, whether beginners or experienced.

For Retail Investors

• Don’t panic: corrections are part of the normal market cycle
• Think long term: institutions think in years, not weeks
• Consider DCA: buying regularly smooths out entry points

For Institutional Investors

• Timing could be favorable: buying below production cost has historically been profitable
• Crypto diversification is gaining legitimacy: even major banks now acknowledge this
• Watch regulation: legislative advances could accelerate the movement

Conclusion: A Cautious but Confident Optimism

JPMorgan’s pivot to a bullish stance on the crypto market marks a symbolic turning point. When America’s largest bank, long skeptical, declares itself “positive” on digital assets, it’s a signal worth taking seriously.

Of course, Wall Street analysts aren’t infallible. Their past predictions have sometimes been contradicted by events. But their structural analysis—institutional flows, production cost as a floor, relative attractiveness compared to gold—offers a relevant framework for thought.

For investors, the key message may be this: in moments of panic, professionals see opportunities. The question is whether one prefers to follow the crowd… or the institutions quietly accumulating.