Bitcoin Outperforms Gold: Precious Metal in Worst Decline Since 1920
📋 En bref (TL;DR)
- Gold in historic freefall: 10 consecutive days of decline, the worst streak since February 1920 — a 106-year record
- Bitcoin outperforms gold: BTC buys 32% more gold than before the conflict, despite an initial 8.5% drop
- BTC/gold correlation at -0.88: the lowest since the 2022 bear market, signaling a historic decoupling
- $14.16 billion in BTC options expire Friday March 28 — max pain at $75,000 could pull prices higher
- Gold: worst week since 1983 with -12% in seven days, $4.2 billion in outflows from the world’s largest gold ETF
- Geopolitical backdrop: Trump’s pause on Iran strikes and ongoing negotiations support Bitcoin’s rebound
Gold has just recorded its worst losing streak in 106 years. Ten consecutive days in the red — unprecedented since February 1920. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience, outperforming gold by 32% since the beginning of the Iran conflict. This spectacular reversal calls into question gold’s safe-haven status and fuels the thesis of Bitcoin as “digital gold.”
In the background, $14.16 billion in Bitcoin options expire on Friday March 28, with a max pain at $75,000 that could act as a bullish price magnet.
Gold in freefall: a 106-year record
The numbers are unequivocal. Gold posted 10 consecutive days of decline, falling from $5,193 to a low of $4,098 — hitting its 200-day moving average. According to Bloomberg data, you have to go back to February 1920 to find a streak this long.
The worst week saw gold plunge 12%, a drop unseen since 1983. The SPDR Gold Shares, the world’s largest gold ETF, suffered $4.2 billion in net outflows and 25 tonnes of physical gold withdrawn in just a few days.
The causes of this paradoxical decline — gold should theoretically rise during crises — are multiple. The strengthening dollar (flight to the greenback amid war), rising bond yields (+12 basis points on the 10-year), and the Fed’s “hawkish” decision on March 18 (only one cut planned for 2026 versus three expected) created a toxic cocktail for the yellow metal. Add to that margin calls: traders forced to sell their gold positions to cover losses elsewhere.
Bitcoin: the “fastest shock absorber”
Bitcoin’s trajectory tells a radically different story. After an initial 8.5% drop on February 28 (the only liquid market open on Saturday when the first strikes occurred), BTC formed an “ascending floor” pattern — each correction creating a higher low than the previous one.
The path since the conflict began illustrates this resilience: bottom at $64,000 on February 28, rebound to $68,200 on March 1, support at $69,400 on March 12, then a 6-week high of approximately $76,000 on March 17. Today, BTC is stabilizing around $71,200.
The correlation between Bitcoin and gold has plunged to -0.88, its lowest level since the November 2022 bear market. This historic decoupling means the two assets are moving in nearly opposite directions — a first in a major geopolitical context.
Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.5 billion in net inflows in March 2026, the longest series of positive weekly flows of the year. Cumulative outflows since November 2025 ($6.4 billion) have been reduced to just $210 million.
Iran: geopolitics as a catalyst
The Iran conflict remains the primary driver of this divergence between safe-haven assets. After the launch of Operation Epic Fury on February 28 and the escalation in the following days, President Trump announced on March 23 a 5-day pause in strikes on Iranian power plants, stating he wanted to “reach a deal.”
On March 25, a 15-point ceasefire proposal was transmitted to Iran via Pakistan, but Tehran rejected it while setting its own conditions. Polymarket prediction markets estimate the probability of a ceasefire at 59% before the end of May and 67% before the end of June.
Every signal of de-escalation has supported Bitcoin, while gold has continued to suffer from dollar strength and elevated rates — a paradox that questions the yellow metal’s traditional role in times of crisis.
$14 billion in options expire Friday: the $75,000 target
The expiration of $14.16 billion in Bitcoin options on Deribit on March 28 (40% of total open interest) could amplify price movements. The max pain — the price at which the maximum number of contracts expire worthless — sits at $75,000, approximately $4,700 above the current price.
The put/call ratio of 0.63 indicates a slightly bullish positioning (more calls than puts). Jean-David Pequignot, Deribit’s commercial director, explains: “The max pain price at $75,000 represents a gravitational force. Delta-hedging by market makers can push prices toward this strike.”
Implied volatility is compressing (-6 points), suggesting the market is not anticipating an explosion of volatility. But the coincidence between the massive expiration and the Iran deadline of March 28 could create an unexpected catalyst.
Glossary
- Bitcoin : The first decentralized cryptocurrency, created in 2009. Often compared to digital gold for its programmed scarcity (maximum 21 million units).
- Max pain : The strike price at which the greatest number of options contracts (calls and puts) expire worthless. Prices tend to converge toward this level as expiration approaches.
- Options : Derivative contracts granting the right (but not the obligation) to buy (call) or sell (put) an asset at a fixed price on a given date.
- Implied volatility : A measure of the market’s expectations for future price variations, derived from options pricing. Declining IV indicates a calmer market.
- Delta-hedging : A market maker strategy of adjusting positions on the underlying asset to neutralize the directional risk of their options portfolio.
- ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) : An exchange-listed index fund that tracks the price of an asset. Spot Bitcoin ETFs directly hold bitcoins.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is gold falling during a geopolitical crisis?
Several factors explain this paradox: the flight to the US dollar (which mechanically compresses gold), rising bond yields, the Fed’s restrictive policy, and margin calls that force traders to liquidate their gold positions.
Has Bitcoin become a safe-haven asset?
The debate remains open. Bitcoin has outperformed gold by 32% since the beginning of the Iran conflict, but it also dropped 8.5% during the first strikes. Its correlation with gold at -0.88 suggests different behavior, but not necessarily that of a traditional safe haven.
What is max pain in Bitcoin options?
Max pain is the price at which the greatest number of options contracts expire worthless. For the March 28, 2026 expiration, it sits at $75,000. Prices tend to converge toward this level as the expiration date approaches.
Will the $14 billion options expiration move Bitcoin’s price?
It is likely. With 40% of Deribit’s open interest at stake, delta-hedging by market makers can create significant movements toward the $75,000 max pain. The put/call ratio of 0.63 indicates a slightly bullish bias.
Sources
This article is based on the following sources:
- Protos — Bitcoin Outperforms Gold as Iran War Shakes Safe-Haven Trade, March 23, 2026
- CoinDesk — $14 Billion Bitcoin Options Expiry Points to $75,000 as Price Magnet, March 25, 2026
- BeInCrypto — Gold Hits Worst Losing Streak Since 1920; BTC Sits Safe, March 25, 2026
- CoinDesk — Bitcoin Sold Off First, Two Weeks Later It’s Outperforming Nearly Everything, March 14, 2026
How to cite this article: “Bitcoin Outperforms Gold: Precious Metal in Worst Decline Since 1920,” Fibo Crypto, March 26, 2026.
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