Crypto Sentiment at All-Time Low: Fear & Greed at 5 and Retail Volumes in Free Fall

ByVictor

📋 En bref (TL;DR)

  • Fear & Greed Index at 5: lowest level in history, worse than the FTX crash (6) and COVID crash of March 2020
  • Bitcoin down 52%: dropped from $126,000 to $60,000 since October 2025, currently consolidating around $67,000
  • Robinhood: -38% crypto revenue: Q4 2025 marks a sharp slowdown in retail trading
  • Retail volumes plummeting: -57% on Robinhood crypto volumes in January 2026 ($8.7 billion)
  • Whales are accumulating: over 70,000 BTC ($4.6 billion) purchased by large holders in early February
  • Contrarian signal?: historically, extreme fear levels have often preceded major rebounds

Crypto sentiment hits a historic low

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has reached a level never seen since its creation: 5 out of 100. This score, recorded on February 6, 2026, represents the most intense fear in crypto market history — surpassing even the lows observed during the FTX collapse (6) and the COVID crash of March 2020.

This indicator, calculated from volatility, volumes, social activity, and Google search trends, reflects a state of widespread panic among retail investors. In just a few weeks, the index dropped from 26 to 5, accompanying Bitcoin’s fall from $126,000 to a low of $60,000.

Robinhood: the retail thermometer confirms the cooling

The Q4 2025 results from Robinhood perfectly illustrate this sentiment reversal. The trading platform favored by American retail investors saw its crypto revenues drop by 38% to $221 million, while notional crypto trading volumes plunged 52% year-over-year to $34 billion.

January 2026 figures are even more alarming: crypto volumes on the app fell 57% year-over-year to just $8.7 billion. This sharp contraction suggests the slowdown could extend into Q1 2026.

Mixed overall results

Despite this crypto debacle, Robinhood reported total revenue of $1.28 billion in Q4 (+27% year-over-year), driven by growth in options (+41%) and equities (+54%). For full-year 2025, the company posted record revenue of $4.5 billion and net income of $1.9 billion.

However, the stock fell 7% in after-hours trading following the release, as investors worried about dependence on crypto revenues in a deteriorating market environment.

The whales vs retail divergence: a historic signal

While retail investors capitulate, on-chain data reveals radically different behavior among large holders. On February 6, the day the Fear & Greed Index hit its historic low, 66,940 BTC were transferred to accumulation addresses — the largest daily inflow since 2022.

Whales holding between 1,000 and 100,000 BTC accumulated over 70,000 BTC in early February, worth approximately $4.6 billion at current prices. Meanwhile, BTC outflows from exchanges have accelerated since the drop below $80,000, signaling that large players are withdrawing their coins to cold storage.

What does history tell us?

Extreme fear levels have historically coincided with structural accumulation zones:

  • December 2018: Bitcoin at -84%, Fear & Greed in “Extreme Fear” → rebound from $3,200 to $13,000 in 6 months
  • March 2020: COVID crash below $4,000 → rally to $69,000 in 2021
  • November 2022: FTX collapse, Fear & Greed at 6 → Bitcoin reaches $126,000 in 2025

The current pattern (extreme fear + whale accumulation + SOPR below 1) shows similarities with these previous reversals. This doesn’t guarantee an immediate rebound, but suggests a transfer of coins from weak hands to strong hands.

Catalysts to watch

US CPI release

The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) release is expected today. A reading above 2.5% could push back Fed rate cut expectations and put additional pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin. Conversely, lower-than-expected inflation could trigger a relief rally.

Bitcoin ETFs: institutional resilience

Despite $276 million in outflows this week from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, institutional infrastructure remains solid. BlackRock’s IBIT still manages over $53 billion in assets. Some days in February even recorded net inflows of $371 million amid the panic.

What Is a Bitcoin ETF?

What Is a Bitcoin ETF?

A Bitcoin ETF is a regulated financial product that allows you to invest in Bitcoin indirectly, without having to hold or manage…

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What to do in this context?

Analysts remain divided on short-term prospects. Standard Chartered lowered its year-end target to $100,000 (from $150,000 previously) and anticipates a drop through $50,000 “in the coming months.” Others, like Bernstein, maintain a $150,000 target.

For long-term investors, these periods of extreme fear can represent opportunities for gradual accumulation through a DCA strategy. History shows that the best entry points are often the most psychologically uncomfortable.

📚 Glossary

  • Bitcoin: First decentralized cryptocurrency, created in 2009. Its programmed scarcity (21 million max units) makes it a digital store of value.
  • Fear & Greed Index: Index measuring crypto market sentiment from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed). Calculated from volatility, volumes, social media, and Google trends.
  • Whale: Investor or entity holding a very large amount of cryptocurrency (typically >1,000 BTC), capable of influencing markets through their movements.
  • Robinhood: American trading platform popular with retail investors, offering commission-free trading of stocks, options, and cryptocurrencies.
  • DCA: Dollar Cost Averaging, a strategy of regularly investing a fixed amount to smooth the purchase price over time.
  • Bitcoin ETF: Exchange-traded fund allowing investment in Bitcoin through a traditional brokerage account, without directly holding the crypto.
  • SOPR: Spent Output Profit Ratio, on-chain indicator measuring whether coins sold are at a profit (>1) or loss (<1).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Fear & Greed Index in crypto?

It’s a sentiment indicator that measures fear and greed in the crypto market, from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed). It aggregates data from volatility, trading volumes, social activity, surveys, and Google trends to reflect the overall psychological state of investors.

Why are Robinhood’s crypto revenues falling?

The 38% drop in Robinhood’s crypto revenues in Q4 2025 reflects declining retail trading volumes following Bitcoin’s correction (-52% from its ATH). Retail investors have significantly reduced their trading activity in a bearish market environment.

Is a very low Fear & Greed Index a buy signal?

Historically, extreme fear levels have often coincided with market bottoms. However, this doesn’t guarantee an immediate rebound. These periods typically mark a transfer of ownership from panic sellers to patient buyers (whales, institutions).

What are whales doing during this period of fear?

On-chain data shows large portfolios (1,000 to 100,000 BTC) are accumulating heavily. Over 70,000 BTC were purchased in early February, worth $4.6 billion. This divergent behavior from retail has historically been a signal of potential reversal.

What are the short-term risks for Bitcoin?

Key risks include: higher-than-expected US inflation (delaying rate cuts), continued ETF outflows, and an uncertain macroeconomic environment. Standard Chartered anticipates a possible drop through $50,000 before recovery.

📰 Sources

This article is based on the following sources:

How to cite this article: Fibo Crypto. (2026). Crypto Sentiment at All-Time Low: Fear & Greed at 5 and Retail Volumes in Free Fall. Retrieved February 13, 2026 from https://fibo-crypto.fr/en/blog/crypto-sentiment-fear-greed-5-retail-volumes-free-fall