Bitcoin Reclaims $78,000: Grayscale Signals New Bull Market
📋 En bref (TL;DR)
- Bitcoin reclaims $78,000: BTC is up +4.3% on the week following Trump’s extension of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and a massive buy from Strategy.
- Grayscale calls the end of the bear market: the asset manager believes the bottom is in and all the signals point to a new bull market.
- Strategy now holds 815,061 BTC: Michael Saylor’s company purchased 34,164 BTC for $2.54 billion — its largest buy since 2024.
- STRC dwarfs the ETFs: Strategy’s preferred stock program has purchased 77,000 BTC in 2026, nearly 10 times more than all spot Bitcoin ETFs combined.
- Morgan Stanley launches a Bitcoin ETF at 0.14%: the MSBT fund attracted $139 million in assets in just 9 days.
- Whales accumulate 45,000 BTC: the strongest weekly accumulation since July 2025, while exchange reserves drop to their lowest level since 2017.
- Fear & Greed Index recovering: after hitting 8 (extreme fear) in early April, the index has climbed back to 29, signaling a potential sentiment reversal.
Bitcoin at $78,000: ceasefire, massive buys, and returning confidence
Bitcoin broke above the $78,000 mark on April 22, 2026, posting a 2.2% gain over 24 hours and 4.3% over the week. The rebound comes on the back of a double catalyst: the indefinite extension of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire announced by President Trump, and Strategy’s largest BTC purchase in 17 months.
On Truth Social, Donald Trump announced on April 21 that the United States would extend the ceasefire with Iran, at Pakistan’s request, to give Tehran time to present a unified proposal. The U.S. president noted that “the Iranian government is seriously fractured.” Oil prices subsequently retreated to $88.82 per barrel, easing pressure on global financial markets and fueling a recovery in risk assets, including bitcoin.
Meanwhile, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) announced the acquisition of 34,164 BTC for approximately $2.54 billion, at an average price of $74,395 per bitcoin. The purchase brings Michael Saylor’s company to a total holding of 815,061 BTC, worth roughly $61.56 billion at an average cost basis of $75,527. The transaction was 86% funded through the issuance of STRC preferred shares, with no dilution to common shareholders.
STRC: the vehicle buying more bitcoin than all ETFs combined
The STRC (Stretch) program — Strategy’s perpetual preferred stock — has become the single largest institutional buyer of bitcoin in the world. In 2026, STRC has funded the acquisition of 77,000 BTC, nearly 10 times more than the total net inflows of all U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs combined (approximately 8,000 BTC over the same period). With an annual dividend of 11.50% adjusted monthly, STRC attracts massive capital inflows that are directly converted into bitcoin. At this pace — roughly 774 BTC per day on average — Strategy could reach one million bitcoins by the end of 2026.
Grayscale sees the start of a new bull market
In its “2026 Digital Asset Outlook: Dawn of the Institutional Era” report, Grayscale Research asserts that the crypto market has entered a new bullish era. The asset manager, which oversees one of the world’s largest crypto funds, argues that the current bull market is fundamentally different from previous cycles.
The end of the 4-year cycle?
One of the report’s most striking theses is the challenge to the well-known 4-year cycle historically tied to the bitcoin halving. According to Grayscale, this cyclical pattern is breaking down, replaced by “more consistent capital flows and deeper integration with traditional financial markets.” In other words, the massive influx of institutional players is structurally transforming market dynamics.
Grayscale Research’s head states that bitcoin’s floor sits in the $65,000 to $70,000 range, arguing that selling pressure is fading and investor sentiment is shifting. Two structural drivers support this thesis:
- Macro demand for alternative stores of value: high public debt and fiscal imbalances are increasing risks to fiat currencies. Bitcoin and Ethereum, described as “scarce digital commodities with transparent and programmable supply,” are increasingly serving as inflation hedges.
- Accelerating institutional adoption: since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States in January 2024, net inflows into global crypto ETPs have reached $87 billion.
Morgan Stanley, whales, and miners: the forces at play
Morgan Stanley enters the Bitcoin ETF race
Morgan Stanley’s entry into the spot Bitcoin ETF market sends a strong signal about institutional appetite. The MSBT fund, launched on April 8, 2026 with a management fee of just 0.14% (among the lowest on the market), attracted $139 million in assets in just 9 days. On its first day alone, the fund recorded $33.9 million in net inflows — a launch that analysts rank in the top 1% of all ETF launches in the United States. Morgan Stanley’s vast wealth management network — over 15,000 financial advisors — provides a formidable distribution channel for democratizing access to bitcoin.
Whales accumulate 45,000 BTC in one week
On-chain data reveals massive accumulation by Bitcoin whales. During the last week of April, large addresses added 45,000 BTC — the strongest weekly accumulation since July 2025. Over the past 30 days, addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC have collectively accumulated 270,000 BTC — a monthly record since 2013.
Another telling signal: bitcoin reserves on exchanges have fallen to 2.21 million BTC (5.88% of total supply), their lowest level since December 2017. This massive migration to long-term custody wallets suggests that large holders are positioning for a prolonged rally, reducing the available supply for sale.
Miners selling at a record pace
On the flip side, publicly traded bitcoin miners liquidated more than 32,000 BTC in Q1 2026 — more than in all of 2025. The hashprice (expected revenue per unit of computing power) has dropped to between $28 and $30 per petahash per second per day, one of the lowest profitability levels ever recorded. Among the top sellers: MARA Holdings (15,133 BTC in March), Riot Platforms (3,778 BTC), Core Scientific, and Cango. Several of these companies are redirecting capital toward artificial intelligence and high-performance computing — a strategic pivot that could ease miner selling pressure in the medium term.
Market sentiment: extreme fear gives way to hope
The crypto Fear & Greed Index hit historic extremes in April 2026. On April 2, the index plunged to 8 out of 100 — the deepest “extreme fear” reading since the Terra-Luna collapse in June 2022 (which bottomed at 6). This trough coincided with bitcoin trading below $65,000.
Since then, the index has recovered to 29 (“fear” territory) — still low, but a marked improvement. History suggests that readings below 10 have consistently been followed by positive returns within the following 90 days. Across the fewer than 20 sessions where the index has dipped below 10 since its creation, bitcoin averaged a 40% to 60% gain over the following 12 months.
What about Ethereum?
The Ethereum camp is not short on long-term optimism either. Etherealize, the institutional arm of the Ethereum ecosystem, published a new report setting a long-term price target of $250,000 per ETH. The reasoning hinges on the assumption that Ethereum captures the same monetary premium as bitcoin and gold (combined market cap of $31 trillion). Etherealize argues that “ETH is not a tech bet, but a superior monetary asset with an economic property that gold and bitcoin cannot replicate: it compounds.” The target comes with no specific timeline — Etherealize notes that “the repricing could take five years or twenty.”
Should you invest in bitcoin now? Key factors to consider
The convergence of bullish signals is undeniable: whale accumulation, ETF launches from the world’s largest banks, massive Strategy purchases, and a Grayscale conviction that the bottom is behind us. However, several risks remain:
- Geopolitics: despite the ceasefire extension, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain a threat to markets. A breakdown in negotiations could trigger an oil shock and widespread risk aversion.
- Technical resistance at $80,000: analysts identify this level as a key threshold. A confirmed breakout could open the path to $85,000–$90,000, while a rejection would extend the consolidation phase.
- Retail sentiment still fragile: accumulation is primarily institutional. A sustainable rally requires the return of retail demand.
- Miner selling pressure: the record Q1 2026 sell-offs could continue if hashprice remains depressed.
Tax treatment of cryptocurrency gains varies significantly by jurisdiction. In the United States, crypto is taxed as property, with rates depending on holding period and income bracket. In the EU, rules differ by member state — some apply flat capital gains taxes, while others use progressive rates or offer exemptions for long-term holdings. In the UK, crypto gains fall under Capital Gains Tax with an annual allowance. Investors should consult a tax professional in their country to understand the applicable rules before realizing gains.
As always, diversification and a DCA (dollar-cost averaging) approach remain the most prudent strategies in a volatile market. The current signals are encouraging, but the crypto market remains vulnerable to external shocks.
Glossary
- Bull market: a prolonged period of rising prices in a financial market, generally defined as a gain of more than 20% from the last low. In crypto, bull markets have historically lasted 12 to 18 months.
- Bear market: the opposite of a bull market — a prolonged period of declining prices, typically a drop of more than 20% from the last peak. Often associated with widespread fear and heavy selling.
- ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund): a fund traded on a stock exchange that tracks the performance of an underlying asset. A spot Bitcoin ETF holds actual bitcoin, allowing investors to gain BTC exposure without directly owning it.
- Whale: an investor or entity holding a very large amount of cryptocurrency (generally more than 1,000 BTC). Whale movements are closely monitored because they can significantly influence prices.
- Fear & Greed Index: a composite indicator measuring crypto market sentiment on a scale from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed). It incorporates volatility, volume, social media activity, bitcoin dominance, and Google Trends data.
- Capital gains tax: a tax levied on profits from the sale of assets, including cryptocurrencies. Rates and rules vary by country — for example, the U.S. distinguishes between short-term and long-term capital gains, while some EU countries apply a flat rate on crypto profits.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will bitcoin go back up in 2026?
Several indicators point to upside potential. Grayscale Research believes the bottom was reached between $65,000 and $70,000, whales are accumulating at a record pace, and institutional ETFs are attracting billions of dollars. However, the market remains sensitive to geopolitical tensions and monetary policy shifts. No prediction is guaranteed.
What is a crypto bull market?
A crypto bull market is a prolonged period of rising cryptocurrency prices, generally defined as a gain exceeding 20% from the last low. It is accompanied by growing optimism, increasing trading volumes, and an influx of new investors. Historically, crypto bull markets last between 12 and 18 months.
Why did bitcoin climb back to $78,000?
Bitcoin’s rise to $78,000 on April 22, 2026 resulted from several converging factors: Trump’s indefinite extension of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire (reducing geopolitical risk), Strategy’s purchase of 34,164 BTC for $2.54 billion, and massive whale accumulation (45,000 BTC in a single week).
What is the Fear and Greed Index in crypto?
The Fear & Greed Index is an indicator that measures overall crypto market sentiment on a scale from 0 to 100. A score near 0 indicates extreme fear (historically often a buy signal), while a score near 100 signals excessive greed (often a signal to exercise caution). It aggregates data on volatility, trading volume, social media activity, and bitcoin dominance.
How many bitcoins does Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) hold?
As of April 22, 2026, Strategy holds 815,061 BTC, acquired at a total cost of approximately $61.56 billion at an average price of $75,527 per bitcoin. Michael Saylor’s company is the largest institutional bitcoin holder in the world and continues to buy through its STRC preferred stock program.
Sources
This article relies on the following sources:
- CoinDesk – Bitcoin Climbs to $77,500 on Trump Ceasefire Extension – bitcoin price and geopolitical context as of April 22, 2026.
- Grayscale Research – 2026 Digital Asset Outlook: Dawn of the Institutional Era – full report on crypto market outlook and the new bull market thesis.
- CoinDesk – Strategy Buys 34,164 Bitcoin for $2.54 Billion – details on Strategy’s massive purchase and total holdings.
- Crypto Briefing – STRC Buys 77,000 BTC in 2026, Outpacing All Bitcoin ETFs Combined – comparison of STRC purchases vs. spot ETF inflows.
- Bitcoin Magazine – Morgan Stanley’s Spot Bitcoin ETF Tops $139M in 9 Days – MSBT fund launch and performance.
- Bitcoin Magazine – Bitcoin Whales Accumulate 45,000 BTC – on-chain data on whale accumulation.
- Blockonomi – Bitcoin Miners Sell Record 32K BTC in Q1 2026 – analysis of record miner sell-offs.
- The Block – Etherealize Updates Long-Term ETH Price Prediction to $250,000 – Etherealize’s long-term Ethereum price prediction.
- Alternative.me – Crypto Fear & Greed Index – historical Fear & Greed Index data.
How to cite this article: Fibo Crypto. (2026). Bitcoin Reclaims $78,000 — Grayscale Calls the Start of a New Bull Market. Retrieved April 22, 2026 from https://fibo-crypto.fr/en/blog/bitcoin-78000-bull-market-grayscale-2026
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