Bitcoin Rejected at $70,000: Between Iran Ceasefire Hopes and Trump’s Ultimatum
📋 En bref (TL;DR)
- Bitcoin hits $70,000 : BTC briefly broke through this level on April 6, driven by Iran ceasefire rumors, before being rejected below $69,000
- Trump’s ultimatum : the US president issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, triggering renewed market volatility
- Oil shock : Goldman Sachs calls it the “biggest oil shock in history” after Iranian strikes on Saudi Arabia
- Bitcoin ETFs holding strong : $471 million in single-day net inflows, the largest in six weeks
- Strategy keeps buying : Michael Saylor adds 4,871 BTC worth $330 million, bringing total holdings near 767,000 BTC
- Extreme scenarios : a Bloomberg analyst sees Bitcoin at $10,000, while Cathie Wood calls the 50% correction a “victory”
A short-lived rally to $70,000
Bitcoin briefly surpassed $70,000 on Sunday, April 6, 2026, for the first time since March 25. The rally was driven by reports that Iran was seeking a ceasefire with the United States, reigniting optimism across financial markets.
The euphoria was short-lived, however. By Monday morning, BTC had fallen back to around $68,500, dragged down by renewed geopolitical tensions. Ether followed suit, declining 2.8%. This whipsaw movement perfectly captures the current market’s nervousness — a market hanging on every word from the White House.
Trump’s ultimatum on the Strait of Hormuz
The main source of this volatility: a message posted by Donald Trump on Truth Social. The US president issued an unequivocal warning to Iran: “48 hours before all hell will reign down on them.” He demands the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil transits.
This ultimatum follows Iranian strikes on Saudi Arabia’s Al Jubail refinery, a major escalation that sent shockwaves through global markets. Goldman Sachs called the situation the “biggest oil shock in history,” with maritime insurance premiums for Hormuz transits surging dramatically.
On Polymarket, the largest prediction market platform, bets give only a 3% chance of a ceasefire by April 7 and 14% by April 15. Traders don’t believe in a quick resolution.
Extreme scenarios: $10,000 or recovery?
Bitcoin is currently trading 45% below its all-time high, reached in late 2025. This correction is fueling wildly divergent forecasts.
Mike McGlone, senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, believes BTC could plummet to $10,000. His thesis: Bitcoin remains correlated with risk assets, and a major oil shock combined with a global recession — BCA Research estimates recession risk in Europe and Japan at 50% — could trigger a collapse comparable to 2022.
On the other side, Cathie Wood (ARK Invest) calls the 50% drop a “victory,” arguing that Bitcoin has held up better than in previous corrections and that a floor is forming. Grayscale, meanwhile, identifies “compelling entry points” for altcoins, suggesting some institutions see opportunity.
Institutions keep buying
Despite the uncertainty, institutional flows remain solid. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $471 million in net inflows in a single day — the largest in six weeks. For March, ETFs attracted $1.32 billion in net inflows, the first positive month since October 2025.
Michael Saylor, at the helm of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), continues his accumulation policy with the purchase of 4,871 additional BTC for $330 million. The company’s total holdings now approach 767,000 BTC — roughly 4% of Bitcoin’s total supply. Strategy is absorbing nearly three times the daily production of new BTC by miners.
However, this strategy comes at a cost: Strategy recorded $1.2 billion in Bitcoin-related losses in Q1 2026. Conversely, Riot Platforms chose to sell 3,778 BTC for $289.5 million in Q1, illustrating the diversity of institutional approaches to the current market.
Oil: the overlooked variable in crypto markets
What makes the current situation unprecedented is the interconnection between the oil market and cryptocurrencies. The strikes on Al Jubail triggered a surge in crude prices, fueling inflationary fears. If inflation picks up again, central banks may delay the rate cuts that markets have been anticipating.
It was precisely monetary easing that had propelled Bitcoin to its all-time high in late 2025. A delay — or even tightening — would be a major headwind for risk assets, crypto included. The next key date: the US CPI data release on April 10.
What should investors do?
In this context of maximum uncertainty, a few guidelines stand out:
- DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) remains the best approach to smooth out volatility. Invest a fixed amount weekly or monthly, regardless of market conditions.
- Don’t panic sell: corrections of 40-50% are part of Bitcoin’s DNA. Every cycle has experienced similar drops before reaching new highs.
- Watch macro data: the April 10 CPI release, the Iran-US conflict developments, and upcoming Fed decisions will be decisive.
The only certainty: volatility isn’t going away anytime soon. And for patient investors, it’s often during periods of uncertainty that the best positions are built.
📚 Glossary
- Bitcoin (BTC): The first and largest cryptocurrency by market cap, created in 2009 by Satoshi Nakamoto. Operates on a decentralized network with a fixed supply of 21 million units.
- Volatility: A measure of the magnitude of price fluctuations for an asset. Higher volatility means larger and faster price swings.
- ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund): A fund listed on a stock exchange that tracks the performance of an asset. A spot Bitcoin ETF directly holds BTC, allowing investors to gain exposure without managing a wallet.
- Altcoins: All cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin. The term covers thousands of projects with varying characteristics, from Ether (ETH) to DeFi tokens.
- Polymarket: A decentralized prediction market platform allowing users to bet on the outcomes of real-world events. Often used as a market sentiment indicator.
- DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging): An investment strategy involving buying a fixed amount at regular intervals, regardless of price. Helps smooth out the average entry cost over time.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why was Bitcoin rejected at $70,000?
Bitcoin briefly broke through $70,000 on April 6, 2026, thanks to Iran-US ceasefire rumors. But Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum on the Strait of Hormuz reignited tensions, causing a pullback to $68,500. Geopolitical nervousness is currently dominating market action.
How does the Iran-Trump conflict affect Bitcoin's price?
The conflict creates extreme volatility. Strikes on Saudi Arabia sent oil prices soaring, fueling inflation fears and pushing back hopes of interest rate cuts. Since Bitcoin depends heavily on monetary policy, delayed rate cuts are a negative signal for crypto assets.
Could Bitcoin really fall to $10,000?
This is the bearish scenario from Mike McGlone (Bloomberg Intelligence), who argues that a major oil shock combined with a global recession could trigger a collapse. Conversely, Cathie Wood (ARK Invest) sees the bottom already forming. The outcome depends on the conflict’s evolution and economic data.
Should you buy Bitcoin during the Iranian crisis?
No one can predict short-term movements. The most prudent strategy remains DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging): investing a fixed amount at regular intervals to smooth out volatility. Long-term investors often view periods of fear as opportunities.
Why do Bitcoin ETFs keep attracting funds despite the drop?
Institutional investors take a long-term view. The $471 million in single-day net inflows shows that large funds are using the correction to accumulate at lower prices. Michael Saylor (Strategy) himself bought 4,871 additional BTC in April.
📰 Sources
This article is based on the following sources:
- Bloomberg – Bitcoin Falls as Trump’s Iran Deadline Drives Market Volatility (April 7, 2026)
- Yahoo Finance – Bitcoin Tops $70,000 on Optimism Over Possible Iran Ceasefire (April 6, 2026)
- CoinDesk – Three key signals to watch as bitcoin whipsaws on Trump’s Iran rhetoric
- Bitget News – Trump Posted a 48-Hour Iran Ultimatum, Crypto Market Braces for Volatility
How to cite this article: Fibo Crypto. (2026). Bitcoin Rejected at $70,000: Between Iran Ceasefire Hopes and Trump’s Ultimatum. Retrieved April 7, 2026 from fibo-crypto.fr
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