Trump: “The War in Iran Is Almost Over” — Bitcoin Rebounds to $70,000
📋 En bref (TL;DR)
- Shock announcement: Trump declares the war in Iran “very complete, pretty much” and says it could end “very soon”
- Bitcoin rebounds: BTC climbs back to $69,500 (+3.4%) in the aftermath, targeting $70,000 on a massive short squeeze
- Oil in freefall: Crude drops from $119 to $86 per barrel (-28%) following Trump’s statements
- Stock markets surge: The Nasdaq jumps 1.38%, the S&P 500 rises 0.81% in a spectacular reversal
- Iran denies: New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei rejects any negotiations, calling Trump’s remarks “psychological warfare”
- Massive liquidations: Over $500 million in short positions liquidated across crypto markets
- Circle and MSTR: Crypto-adjacent stocks rebound sharply in the market’s wake
Spectacular turnaround across markets this Monday, March 9, 2026. During a phone interview with CBS News, US President Donald Trump declared that the war against Iran was “very complete, pretty much” and that it could end “very soon.” Within hours, Bitcoin rebounded 3.4% to hit $69,500, oil plunged nearly 28%, and US stock indices staged a lightning-fast bullish reversal.
This statement comes on the tenth day of the American-Israeli war against Iran, launched after the assassination of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28. But Tehran categorically rejects any negotiation scenario, adding a layer of uncertainty to an already high-tension market. For the crypto market, this announcement acted as an immediate catalyst: over $500 million in short positions were liquidated, and BTC is now targeting $70,000.
Trump declares Iran war “nearly over”
The exact words of the US president
In his interview with CBS News, Trump stated that the United States was “achieving major breakthroughs in accomplishing its military objectives.” He added that the operation was “ahead of schedule,” while confronting pressures tied to the oil price surge that had pushed crude above $100 per barrel earlier in the week.
When asked about the contradiction between his remarks and those of his Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, who had stated that the war was “just beginning,” Trump responded that both statements could be true simultaneously: “It’s the beginning of building a new country.”
On Truth Social, the president also wrote that “short-term oil prices, which will drop rapidly once the destruction of Iran’s nuclear threat is complete, are a very small price to pay for global security and peace.”
Iran rejects any negotiations
On the Iranian side, the response was unequivocal. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told NBC News: “We are not asking for a ceasefire. We see no reason to negotiate when we have negotiated with them twice and each time they attacked us in the middle of negotiations.”
The semi-official Tasnim agency described reports of indirect contact between Iran’s intelligence ministry and the CIA as “pure fabrication and psychological warfare.” The new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed on March 8 following the assassination of his father, is considered a hardliner with close ties to the Revolutionary Guards, which does not bode well for a rapid de-escalation.
Bitcoin rebounds: the short squeeze kicks in
From $63,000 to $70,000 in one week
Bitcoin has had a chaotic ride since the conflict began. After plunging to $63,000 on February 29 under the impact of the geopolitical shock, BTC began a gradual rebound during the first week of March, supported by massive institutional flows into spot ETFs.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $1.45 billion in net inflows over five trading days, according to CoinDesk. This institutional support provided a solid foundation for the price recovery.
On Monday, March 9, following Trump’s statements, BTC surged 3.4% to hit $69,523, according to CoinGape data. The broader crypto market saw its total capitalization climb back to $2.33 trillion, up 1.18%.
A massive short squeeze
The mechanism behind this rally is largely technical. Short positions accumulated during the period of geopolitical panic were caught offside. In the first week of March, over $500 million in short positions were liquidated on derivatives markets, accelerating the price increase in a classic snowball effect.
According to CoinGlass data, a break above $70,000 would trigger approximately $90 million in additional short liquidations. CryptoSlate analysts describe the $70,000 level as an “exit trap” for bears: once breached, the bullish move could become self-reinforcing up to the $73,000-$74,000 resistance zone.
Traditional markets in reversal mode
Oil plunges 28%
The most dramatic impact of Trump’s statements was felt in the oil market. After surging to $119 per barrel earlier in the day amid fears of escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, US crude plunged nearly 28% to fall back around $86 per barrel.
According to CNBC, Brent stabilized around $84 per barrel. Trump also raised the possibility of the United States “taking control” of the Strait of Hormuz and announced plans to lift some sanctions on oil producers, which amplified the downward pressure on prices.
Wall Street bounces back
US stock indices staged an impressive intraday reversal. According to data from Fortune and the Motley Fool, the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.38%, the S&P 500 rose 0.81%, and the Dow Jones gained 0.50%. This comes after global markets lost $6 trillion since the conflict began, according to Bloomberg.
Crypto stocks lead the rebound
Crypto-related stocks benefited fully from the bullish move. Circle (CRCL), the USDC issuer, is trading around $96-102 after rebounding over 15%, also buoyed by strong quarterly results (EPS of $0.43 vs. $0.35 expected, revenue up 77%).
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), the largest institutional Bitcoin holder with over 717,000 BTC, naturally benefited from BTC’s rally. MSTR stock, closely correlated with Bitcoin’s price, participated in the broad rebound across tech and crypto stocks.
Ethereum, XRP, and Solana also posted notable gains, benefiting from the improvement in overall market sentiment.
Why analysts remain cautious
The Trump paradox: end of war or escalation?
Trump’s statements are marked by an internal contradiction. On one hand, he announces the war is “nearly over.” On the other, he demands “unconditional surrender” from Iran and threatens to strike “twenty times harder” if Tehran attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz.
This ambivalence creates a difficult investment environment to navigate. Wall Street strategists, cited by Bloomberg, warn against counting on a “Trump put” to save markets in the event of escalation.
The risk of renewed volatility
VanEck published a detailed analysis of the causes behind Bitcoin’s February 2026 decline, highlighting that geopolitical volatility remains the number one risk for crypto assets in the short term. If Iran retaliates militarily or negotiations fail publicly, the market could quickly erase recent gains.
That said, fundamentals remain solid. Positive ETF flows, growing institutional adoption, and bullish analyst forecasts (Tom Lee targets $250,000, JPMorgan $170,000, Standard Chartered $150,000) suggest the bottom may already be in, provided the geopolitical situation does not deteriorate further.
What should crypto investors take away?
March 9, 2026 perfectly illustrates the new dynamic in crypto markets: hyper-reactive to geopolitical signals, yet supported by an increasingly solid institutional base. The short squeeze did its job, but the market’s ability to hold $70,000 will determine what comes next.
The coming days will be decisive. If Trump manages to deliver on his promises of ending the conflict, BTC could target $73,000-$74,000 initially, then potentially reconnect with $80,000. Conversely, an Iranian escalation or a stinging denial of peace prospects could push the market back toward $63,000.
In this context, risk management remains paramount. Savvy investors will monitor three key indicators: oil prices (a barometer for the conflict), ETF flows (institutional sentiment), and the implied volatility rate on Bitcoin options.
Glossary
- Bitcoin (BTC): The first and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Created in 2009 by Satoshi Nakamoto, it operates on a decentralized network based on blockchain technology.
- Short squeeze: A market phenomenon where a rapid price increase forces short sellers to buy back their positions, thereby amplifying the upward move.
- Stablecoin: A cryptocurrency whose value is pegged to a stable asset, typically the US dollar. Circle’s USDC is a major example.
- Crypto market: The collective term for all exchanges where cryptocurrencies are bought and sold. Its total market capitalization exceeds $2.3 trillion as of March 2026.
- Volatility: A measure of the magnitude of an asset’s price fluctuations. High volatility means large and rapid price movements, both upward and downward.
- Strait of Hormuz: A strategic maritime passage between Iran and Oman through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil transits. Its potential blockade poses a major risk to the global economy.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Bitcoin rebound after Trump’s statements on Iran?
Trump’s statements suggesting the war in Iran was “nearly over” reduced the geopolitical risk premium across markets. Bitcoin, viewed as both a risk asset and a safe haven, benefited from a massive short squeeze: short sellers were forced to buy back their positions, amplifying the rally to $69,500.
What is a short squeeze and how does it affect Bitcoin’s price?
A short squeeze occurs when an asset’s price rises sharply, forcing traders who had bet on a decline (short positions) to buy back to limit their losses. This forced buying creates additional buying pressure, amplifying the rally. In March 2026, over $500 million in short positions were liquidated across crypto markets.
Is the war in Iran really over?
No, the situation remains uncertain. Trump declared the war “nearly over,” but Iran rejects any negotiations. New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed on March 8, 2026, is a hardliner with close ties to the Revolutionary Guards. Iran’s Foreign Minister has explicitly refused any ceasefire, calling Trump’s remarks psychological warfare.
Why did oil prices drop after Trump’s statements?
Crude oil dropped from $119 to approximately $86 per barrel as markets interpreted Trump’s statements as a signal of imminent de-escalation. An end to the conflict would reduce the risk of oil supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil transits.
Should you invest in Bitcoin during a geopolitical conflict?
Periods of geopolitical conflict heighten Bitcoin’s volatility. While institutional flows ($1.45 billion through ETFs in five days) support the price, the risk of a sharp reversal remains high. Investors should adjust their risk management: diversification, reduced position sizes, and close monitoring of geopolitical indicators such as oil prices.
Sources
This article is based on the following sources:
- CNBC – Trump says Iran war will end “very soon”, predicts lower oil prices (March 9, 2026)
- CoinDesk – Bitcoin takes aim at $70,000 after Trump says U.S. ahead of schedule in Iran attack (March 9, 2026)
- Al Jazeera – Trump says US-Israeli war on Iran will be over “very soon” (March 9, 2026)
- Fortune – Stocks stage massive upside reversal as oil plunges after Trump says Iran war could be over soon (March 9, 2026)
- CoinGape – Why BTC Price is Rising Today (March 9, 2026)
How to cite this article: Fibo Crypto. (2026). Trump: “the war in Iran is nearly over” — Bitcoin rebounds to $70,000. Retrieved March 10, 2026, from fibo-crypto.fr
