Iran War: Bitcoin Plunges Below $66,000 as Oil Surges to $111
📋 En bref (TL;DR)
- Bitcoin below $66,000: the price plunged as low as $63,000 during the first American-Israeli strikes on Iran, triggering over $300 million in liquidations
- Oil at $111: WTI crude surged more than 20% in a single session, reaching its highest level since July 2022
- Asian stock markets in freefall: South Korea experienced its worst session since 2008 (-12%), the Nikkei lost 3%
- New Iranian Supreme Leader: Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Ali Khamenei, was appointed by the Assembly of Experts on March 8, 2026
- 24/7 crypto market: crypto platforms served as the primary price discovery venue while traditional markets were closed
- Ethereum and altcoins decline: ETH below $2,000, XRP around $1.37, losses of 3 to 5% across all altcoins
The armed conflict between the United States and Israel against Iran since February 28, 2026 has triggered a full-blown earthquake across global financial markets. Bitcoin, oil, Asian stock exchanges: no asset has been spared by this unprecedented military escalation in the Middle East. Within days, crude oil broke through the symbolic $100 barrier, Asian stock indices recorded their worst sessions since the 2008 crisis, and the crypto market suffered over $300 million in liquidations.
For cryptocurrency investors, this situation raises a fundamental question: are digital assets a safe haven in times of crisis, or do they instead amplify the panic from traditional markets? Here is a comprehensive analysis of the Iran war’s impact on the crypto market.
Bitcoin Below $66,000: A Sharp but Temporary Drop
When the first American-Israeli strikes hit Iranian territory on February 28, as part of Operation Shield of Judah, Bitcoin reacted immediately. The price plunged from $74,000 to approximately $63,000 within hours, a drop of nearly 15% over a single weekend. This move triggered over $300 million in liquidations on centralized exchanges, including $130 million in long positions forced to close.
The total crypto market capitalization lost $128 billion within minutes of the initial escalation, falling to around $2.33 trillion, a decline of 3.4%. However, Bitcoin showed some resilience by bouncing back above $68,900 by March 3, before slipping back to around $66,000 as geopolitical uncertainty persisted.
This pattern echoes the reactions observed during previous conflicts. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Bitcoin also dropped sharply before rebounding. The difference this time: the scale of the conflict and its direct consequences on energy prices threaten to extend the bearish pressure.
Oil at $111: The Strait of Hormuz at the Heart of the Crisis
The most destabilizing factor for markets is not the conflict itself, but its consequences on global energy supply. WTI crude (West Texas Intermediate) surged more than 20% in a single session to reach $111.24 per barrel, its highest level since July 2022.
Since the strikes began on February 28, oil prices have risen by approximately 50%. The main reason: Iran has effectively shut down shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation. This strategic passage handles roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. Its blockage has forced several major Gulf producers to cut their output.
The American-Israeli strikes notably hit four oil storage facilities and one petroleum production transfer center in Tehran and Alborz province, according to Iranian state media. The consequences are already visible for American consumers: the average gasoline price rose from $3 per gallon before the strikes to $3.45 within a week.
What Is the Link Between Oil and Crypto?
Rising energy prices fuel inflation, which pushes central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer. The European Central Bank (ECB) has warned that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could lead to higher inflation and weaker growth. Higher rates are generally unfavorable for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The cost of mining Bitcoin, which is directly tied to energy prices, also increases, potentially weighing on miner profitability and thus on the price.
Asian Stock Markets: The Worst Session Since 2008 for Seoul
While the crypto market suffered, Asian stock markets experienced a genuine collapse. South Korea recorded the worst session in its history: the KOSPI index plunged 12.06% on March 4, exceeding even the 12.02% drop caused by the September 11, 2001 attacks. A circuit breaker was triggered to halt trading.
Other Asian exchanges were not spared. Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 3%, Australia’s ASX 200 fell 1.5%, and the Thai stock exchange imposed a circuit breaker after an 8% drop. The reason: Asia depends on the Middle East for 60% of its oil supply, making it particularly vulnerable to any disruption in the region.
In Europe, indices also suffered with declines of 1 to 2%, while Wall Street posted mixed results, buoyed by energy stocks and defense sectors.
Mojtaba Khamenei: A New Supreme Leader in the Midst of War
The assassination of Ali Khamenei on February 28 during the strikes added another dimension to the crisis. On March 8, the Assembly of Experts appointed his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, as the new Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Trained in the conservative seminaries of Qom, Mojtaba Khamenei holds the clerical rank of hojjatoleslam. His appointment was pushed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), with which he maintains close ties, particularly with IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi and former IRGC intelligence chief Hossein Taeb. Although Iranian ideology disapproves of the principle of hereditary succession, pressure from the IRGC proved decisive.
For markets, this appointment signals continuity of Iran’s hardline stance. Analysts believe Mojtaba Khamenei could harden Iran’s position against Western sanctions, which would prolong geopolitical uncertainty and maintain pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
The Crypto Market: The Only Market Open Over the Weekend
A notable aspect of this crisis: crypto platforms played an unprecedented role in price discovery while traditional markets were closed over the weekend. While the New York, London, and Tokyo stock exchanges were shut, decentralized exchanges like Hyperliquid saw their volumes surge, with peaks approaching $200 million in 24 hours.
Perpetual futures contracts on oil, gold, and silver were actively traded on these platforms, giving traders a real-time view of market reactions to the conflict. Gold, the quintessential safe haven asset, advanced toward $5,300-$5,400 per ounce, while oil contracts on Hyperliquid closely tracked the rise in crude prices.
The Iranian Crypto Market Under the Spotlight
The conflict also shed light on the Iranian crypto market, estimated at $7.8 billion. Withdrawals on Nobitex, Iran’s largest crypto exchange, surged 700% in the minutes following the first strike. Iranian citizens and authorities are increasingly turning to cryptocurrencies to store and transfer money during times of turmoil, illustrating a real-world use case for digital assets in crisis situations.
Ethereum and Altcoins: Amplified Losses
Ethereum fell below the $2,000 mark, registering a decline of approximately 4%. XRP dropped to around $1.37, down 66% from its 2025 peak near $3.66. Solana, Cardano, and Dogecoin also lost between 3 and 5%.
Altcoins are generally more sensitive to panic-driven moves than Bitcoin. Historically, during geopolitical crises like the Russia-Ukraine conflict, volatility was amplified and altcoins underperformed relative to Bitcoin. If the Iran conflict drags on and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, analysts do not rule out a return of Bitcoin toward $60,000, while XRP could retest the $1 level or even drop toward $0.85.
What Are the Prospects for Crypto Investors?
The current situation puts investors in a dilemma. On one hand, Bitcoin has shown its ability to bounce back quickly after the initial shock. On the other, the conflict is far from resolved, and uncertainty could weigh on prices for several weeks, or even months.
Three Possible Scenarios
The first scenario, the most favorable, would be a swift ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. In this case, Bitcoin could return to its pre-crisis levels above $74,000 and oil would gradually fall back below $80.
The second scenario, an intermediate one, would see the conflict settle into a war of attrition with persistent tensions but no major escalation. Bitcoin would then oscillate between $60,000 and $70,000, swayed by geopolitical headlines.
The third scenario, the most pessimistic, would involve the conflict widening to other Gulf countries and a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil could then exceed $120, traditional markets would enter a deep correction, and Bitcoin could test $55,000.
Practical Advice
In this context, caution is advised. Beginner investors should avoid leverage, which caused massive losses during the recent liquidations. Diversification remains essential: gold and commodities offer a natural hedge against geopolitical tensions. Finally, DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging), which involves investing fixed amounts at regular intervals, helps smooth out volatility and avoids trying to time the market.
Glossary
- Bitcoin (BTC): the first and leading cryptocurrency, created in 2009 by Satoshi Nakamoto. Often regarded as a digital store of value, its price is influenced by macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions.
- Cryptocurrency: a decentralized digital asset that uses cryptography to secure transactions. Bitcoin and Ethereum are the two leading cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.
- Ethereum (ETH): the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Ethereum is a smart contract platform that enables the creation of decentralized applications.
- Liquidation: the forced closure of a leveraged position when losses reach the trader’s margin threshold. Cascading liquidations amplify price movements.
- Volatility: a measure of the magnitude of an asset’s price fluctuations. High volatility means significant and rapid price swings, both upward and downward.
- Strait of Hormuz: a strategic maritime passage located between Iran and Oman, through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply transits. Its blockage has a direct impact on energy prices.
- Circuit breaker: a stock market safety mechanism that automatically halts trading when prices fall beyond a predetermined threshold, in order to prevent panic.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Bitcoin crash during the Iran war?
Bitcoin is treated by markets as a risk asset, not as a safe haven. During major geopolitical tensions, investors sell risk assets to reposition into gold or bonds. Cascading liquidations on leveraged positions amplified the decline.
What is the impact of $111 oil on cryptocurrencies?
Rising oil prices fuel inflation, which pushes central banks to maintain higher interest rates. Higher rates reduce appetite for risk assets like crypto. Additionally, Bitcoin mining costs rise with energy prices, weighing on miner profitability.
Can Bitcoin serve as a safe haven during war?
In the short term, no. Bitcoin behaves as a high-beta risk asset and faces the same pressures as tech stocks. However, in the medium term, it has shown its ability to rebound quickly after geopolitical shocks, as seen during the Ukraine invasion in 2022.
Should you buy Bitcoin during the Iran-related dip?
That depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance. Long-term investors may view the dips as buying opportunities through DCA (regular investing). However, leveraged trading is extremely risky in this high-volatility environment.
Who is Mojtaba Khamenei and what is his impact on markets?
Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, is the son of Ali Khamenei and Iran’s new Supreme Leader since March 8, 2026. His appointment signals continuity of Iran’s hardline stance, which prolongs geopolitical uncertainty and maintains pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Sources
This article is based on the following sources:
- Bloomberg – Oil Tops $110 as Iran War Forces More Gulf Giants to Cut Output – Analysis of the oil price surge and impact on Middle Eastern production.
- Coinpedia – Crypto Market Crash: $302M Liquidations – Details on liquidations and the impact on Bitcoin and Ethereum.
- Al Jazeera – South Korea’s Stock Market Suffers Biggest Drop in History – Coverage of the historic KOSPI crash and Asian stock market declines.
- Al Jazeera – Iran Names Khamenei’s Son as New Supreme Leader – Appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as new Supreme Leader.
- Euronews – Crypto’s 24/7 Platforms Dominated Iran War Trading – The role of crypto platforms as price discovery venues during the crisis.
How to cite this article: Fibo Crypto. (2026). Iran War: Bitcoin Plunges Below $66,000, Oil Surges to $111. Retrieved March 9, 2026 from fibo-crypto.fr
