End of US Government Shutdown: Bitcoin Bounces Back After Historic 217-214 Vote

The crypto market experienced an extraordinary session on Tuesday, February 3, 2026. As Bitcoin plunged below $73,000 — its lowest level since Donald Trump’s election in November 2024 — a razor-thin vote in the House of Representatives changed everything. By 217 votes to 214, lawmakers passed a $1.2 trillion budget bill, putting an end to the partial shutdown of the US federal government. This political relief immediately triggered a Bitcoin rebound toward $76,000. But behind this spectacular move, the fundamentals remain concerning. Between massive liquidations, record Bitcoin ETF outflows, and persistent macroeconomic uncertainties, is this relief rally the beginning of a genuine recovery or merely a temporary reprieve?

A shutdown that rattled the financial markets

The federal shutdown began on January 31, 2026, after budget negotiations in Congress collapsed. The disagreements primarily centered on funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and immigration policies — two issues at the heart of President Trump’s political agenda. During these days of government paralysis, uncertainty spread across the entire financial landscape. Investors massively reduced their exposure to risk assets, and cryptocurrencies were no exception. Bitcoin dropped nearly 15% over the preceding week, dragging the entire crypto market down with it. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization fell to around $2.7 trillion. Traditional markets didn’t fare much better: the Nasdaq lost 2% and the S&P 500 shed 1.3% on February 3 alone. The crypto Fear & Greed Index plunged into “extreme fear” territory, reflecting a deeply negative market sentiment. The absence of key economic data releases during the shutdown added yet another layer of uncertainty, depriving investors of essential benchmarks for assessing the health of the US economy. Reduced weekend liquidity further amplified price movements, making markets particularly vulnerable to forced selling.

The vote that changed everything: 217 to 214

The breakthrough came on the evening of February 3 (Washington time). The House of Representatives passed the budget bill by a historically narrow margin: 217 votes in favor to 214 against. The Senate had already voted in favor of the bill on January 30, paving the way for the presidential signature. The $1.2 trillion budget signed by President Trump funds most federal agencies through September 2026. However, DHS funding is only secured until February 13, leaving the door open to renewed political tensions in the coming days. Internal divisions within the Republican Party largely contributed to the delay in this vote. Some conservative lawmakers demanded more aggressive spending cuts, while Democrats pushed for stronger oversight of federal immigration agencies. Several controversial incidents involving ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) agents fueled the debate, with demands for mandatory body cameras and a ban on wearing balaclavas. This razor-thin vote illustrates the fragility of US fiscal governance and raises a question: if DHS negotiations fail before February 13, another shutdown — even a limited one — cannot be ruled out.

Bitcoin: from $72,800 to $76,000 — a high-tension rebound

The crypto market’s reaction was immediate and brutal. Within a matter of hours, Bitcoin surged from a low of $72,800 to a peak of $76,800 — a rebound of over 5%. Ethereum followed the same trajectory, climbing from $2,100 to $2,300 (+10% from its session lows). But this extreme volatility left deep scars. A total of $740 million in leveraged positions were liquidated within 24 hours across crypto derivatives markets, according to CoinGlass data. Long (buy) positions bore the brunt, with $287 million liquidated on Bitcoin and $267 million on Ethereum. These figures highlight the excessive leverage accumulated in the market and the violence of the correction. Major altcoins were not spared either. XRP and Solana posted declines comparable to Ethereum’s, while the total market capitalization briefly dipped below $2.6 trillion before stabilizing.

Bitcoin ETFs caught in the storm

Selling pressure wasn’t confined to the spot market. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $272 million in net outflows on February 3, according to SosoValue data. Fidelity’s FBTC fund was the hardest hit, with $149 million in net redemptions alone. By contrast, Ethereum ETFs posted a net inflow of $14 million. Solana and XRP ETFs also attracted capital, with $1.24 million and $19.46 million in net inflows respectively. These movements suggest a partial rotation by institutional investors, shifting their allocations from Bitcoin to altcoins amid the correction.

Technical analysis: a relief rally, not a reversal

Analysts broadly agree that this rebound is more of a relief rally than a genuine trend reversal. Several technical indicators support this cautious reading. Bitcoin’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) sits around 35 — near oversold territory but without reaching the extreme levels (below 30) that typically precede a sustained bounce. On the charts, the break below the April 2025 lows — the infamous “tariff tantrum” triggered by trade tariffs — represents a significant bearish technical signal, marking a new structural low. Benjamin Cowen, founder of the analytics platform Into The Cryptoverse, believes that excessively bearish sentiment could nonetheless trigger a short-term counter-trend rally. “Historically, when Bitcoin sweeps its previous lows, it often sparks relief rallies,” he explained on X (formerly Twitter). But he warns: if Bitcoin fails to stage a lasting rebound, “it’s going to be quite a year for markets” — referencing the 2018 and 2022 bear markets, which also coincided with US midterm elections. Another analyst, The Cryptic Wolf, estimates that the $70,000–$74,000 zone could serve as a floor for this correction. He remains convinced that Bitcoin is not in a bear market and anticipates new all-time highs by the end of 2026.

Key levels to watch

On Polymarket, the decentralized prediction platform, traders place the probability of Bitcoin falling to $70,000 in February at 61%. Conversely, the odds of seeing $90,000 again this month have dropped to just 18%. Major technical supports sit at $76,000 (immediate support) and $72,000 (the February 3 low). On the upside, key resistance stands at $80,000 — a psychological threshold that Bitcoin must reclaim to invalidate the short-term bearish scenario.

What’s next for the days ahead?

Several critical deadlines are approaching that could determine the market’s trajectory in the coming weeks.

February 13: a new shutdown threat

DHS funding expires on February 13. If congressional negotiations fail again on this sensitive issue, a new shutdown — even a partial one — could revive market fears and renew downward pressure on risk assets, with cryptocurrencies at the front of the line.

Macro data and monetary policy

On the macroeconomic front, US employment figures expected around February 6 and inflation data later in the month will be pivotal. These indicators will directly influence expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy — and by extension, the trajectory of cryptocurrencies, which are historically sensitive to liquidity conditions. The nomination of Kevin Warsh, widely regarded as an “inflation hawk,” as the next Fed chair adds another layer of uncertainty. A faster-than-expected monetary tightening would be a powerful headwind for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

Conclusion: caution despite the relief

The budget vote and the end of the shutdown bring welcome respite, but structural challenges remain. The fragility of the Republican majority, trade-related geopolitical tensions, and an uncertain macroeconomic environment are all factors that could sustain elevated volatility across crypto markets. Savvy investors will keep a close eye on key technical levels and political deadlines in the coming weeks before jumping to conclusions about market direction.